星期五, 21 1 月, 2022
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2018日本房地產投資市場分析

市場分析 

 

跟據2018年各個與經濟相關的報告中, 本文會在最有影響力的範疇作出概括資料總結及分析。分別是旅遊開發、經濟、土地價格、政府政策和貨幣穩定等方面。方便客戶及讀者對投資日本房地產會有更多了解及信心。 

 

 

旅遊業發展 

 

從2011年到2017年,到日本的遊客人數每年都在急劇增加。根據日本國家旅遊局(2018)資料顯示,每年到日本的遊客人數(2011-2017)平均增長率為29.33%。 僅於2017年就有2870萬遊客抵達日本,在2018年1月至10月已有2610萬遊客抵達日本。相信2018年全年的遊客總數將高於2870萬人次。日本政府較早前更設定了2020年入境游客人次目標為4000萬。隨著旅遊業帶來的巨大需求,包括住宿、基建、人手等方面,政府在各方面進行投資,以滿足遊客的需要,並繼續提供日本著名的優質產品和服務。旅遊業的增長將成為支持和促進日本經濟增長和發展的主要動力,包括經濟,基礎設施,交通,酒店,住宅和商廈。 

 

在沖繩,那霸機場的第三條跑道亦於2019年開始運營,而擴建的國際機場航站樓也會在2019年3月隆重開放,以迎接更多的外國游客入境。 

 

經濟 

 

日本銀行行長黑田(2019)表示,日本正處於健康經濟復甦週期。 實際出口、工業生產和優質服務的增加令日本的外國遊客數量逐漸增加。 游客增長是改善日本經濟活動的重要因素。 

 

加上日本將在未來數年會分別舉辦幾次世界級的活動。  

分別有以下幾項:  2019年東京G20研討會 

2019年橄欖球世界杯 

2020年東京奧運會 

2025年大阪世博 

 

這些國際賽事和展覽促使日本更快在霧島開設首個綜合賭場和度假村項目。 估計每年度的商務及觀光旅客將在未來幾年繼續穩步增長。 因此,鑑於日本的經濟有可觀的未來前景 (2018),日本政府積極投資多種開發項目,包括機械、基建、商場及不同設施,以滿足入境游客日益增長的需求。 入境旅客快速增長除了帶來更多優質住宅和商廈建成外,更帶動多個城市的重建發展(黑田 2018) ,重建後可以更方便利用各個樞紐中心區域。當中包括 : 虎之門、東京車站區、日本橋、品川、澀谷、柴田浦、有樂町和西(新)西新宿。 

 

土地價格 

 

 

根據 國土交通省(2018), 自資產泡沫爆破(1991) 結束後連續26年下降以來 ,日本的標準地價於2018年首次出現正增長(0.1%)。 由於正在蓬勃發展的旅遊業,令辦公室供應不足以及為此興建的多個大規模重建項目,促使日本的土地價格上漲。 

 

商業用地基準地價比居住用地有更顯著上升 。 在全國范圍內,商業用地的價格在2018年增長了1.1%, 2017下半年京都府增加0.5%,是增加的入境遊客的經濟影響。 在升幅排名前10位的調查地點中,京都府佔5個地方 。 京都府被稱為古都,在外國遊客中很受歡迎。 大量的旅客支持當地房地產市場、建設、酒店和零售商店。 京都的商業用地價格在2017年大幅增長5.7%之後2018年飆升7.5%。由於商業用地供應有限,京都府的住宅用地也從入境游客增加,住宿和土地供應有限中上漲。 

 

政府政策 

 

日本銀行行長黑田東彥先生 於2018年12月在議會宣布了2019年的財務戰略。如果不實現日本2%的通貨膨脹率,央行必須維持大規模刺激計劃以促進經濟增長。 因此,將繼續實施低借款利率計劃。 各種行業的企業和消費者也可以從低利率政策中受益。 與其他國家相比,日本的借款利率相對較低,這對外國投資者入市和發展新業務更具吸引力。 

 

日本時報(2018)報導,安倍首相將在2019年10月將消費稅從8%提高到10%。當消費稅增加時,也將適用本地購房者的現金獎勵和免稅。 這可能有利於提升日本房地產市場。 

 

據三井不動產株式會社規劃研究部門介紹 (2018),日本的主要人口將在2050年70-90歲。日本政府也意識到老齡化問題。 據估計,到2060年,日本人數將從1.27億降至8700萬,其中近40%的人口將達到65歲或以上。 不平衡人口將導致不同的社會問題,例如,醫療和護理成本,勞動力萎縮,稅收收入不足等。 針對日本的可持續發展方面,日本政府推出了新的移民法規,以吸引國際專家和專業人士到日本工作和留住,以提高生產力。 

 

 

貨幣穩定 

 

“日元匯率歷史”(2014)說明,當世界股票市場陷入低迷時,日元的價值將保持不變甚至增加。 Lothian(2014)也注意到,日元更適合長期持有。 此外,不同的報告和預測 , 包括日本央行和美聯儲(2019)在內, 預計 2019年 的財政增長將放緩。 由於日元是日本房地產市場的主要貨幣,以合理的匯率購買日本房產可能會帶來更有利的長期投資回報。 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market analysis 

 

In 2019, several trends are playing significant roles in influencing and shaping Japanese real estate market. We are going to have specific analysis respectively. There are tourism development, economy, land price, government policy and currency stability. 

 

Tourism development  

 

There is a sharp annual increase in number of visitor arrivals to Japan from 2011-2017. According to Japan National Tourism Organization (2018), the average annual increase in visitor arrivals to Japan from 2011-2017 is 29.33%. 28.7 million visitors arrived in Japan in 2017 while 26.1 million visitors arrived in Japan from January to October in 2018. It is believed that the overall number of visitors in 2018 will be higher than that in 2017. Japan government has set a goal of 40 million inbound visitors in 2020. With the huge demand in tourism industry, government is investing in different aspects in order to cater tourists’ needs and provide quality products and services as Japan famous of. Tourism growth will be the main driving force to support and enhance Japan’s growth and development, including economy, infrastruction, transportation, hospitality, housings and office buildings. 

 

In Okinawa, the third runway in Naha Airport is going to be operate in 2019 while the expanded international airport terminal will also have grand opening in March 2019 to welcome more foreign inbound visitors. 

 

Economy 

 

Accounding to Kuroda (2019), Japan is undergoing a health economic recovery phase. Increase in real exports, industrial production and quality service lead to gradual increase in number of foreign visitors to Japan. Increasing numbers of inbound tourists is a strong factor in improving and expanding Japan’s ecomomic activity.  

 

Otherwise, Japan is going to organise several world class event in coming years. That is, Japan wil  host Tokyo G20 symposium in 2019, Rugby Worls Cup in 2019, Tokyo Olympics in 2020 and Osaka Expo in 2025. Those international games and exhibitions even urge Japan to start its first liscensed integrated casino and resort programme in Yumeshima. It is believed that the estimated annual business and leisure travellers will steady increase in the coming years. Therefore, given by Japan’s economic and price development and future prospects (2018), Japan is investing in tangible assests developments, including machinery, equipment, buildings and structures in order to cater the increased demand in inbound tourists. Supplying more quality housings and office buildings is not the only benefit from rapid growth in inbound tourists. Numerous urban redevelopment projects(Kuroda, 2018) are launching so as to completely utilize the central area in hub. For example, Toranomon, the Tokyo station area, Nihonbashi, Shinagawa, Shibuya, Shiba-Ura, Yurakucho and Nishi (West) Shinjuku. 

 

Land price 

 

According to Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2018), standard land price in Japan has a first positive growth (0.1%) in 2018 since burst of asset bubble (1991) ending 26 straight years of decline. There are several crucial factors which drive land price in Japan to increase. They are booming tourism industry, low supply in office and a number of large-scale redevelopment projects in Japan’s major centers. 

 

Standard Land Prices for commercial land has a more significant increase than residential land. Nationally, it increased by 1.1% in 2018, after a 0.5% increase in 2017.  Kyoto prefecture is a favorable example to demonstrate the economic influences from increased inbound tourists. There are 5 places where are in Kyoto prefecture in the top 10 ranked survey locations. Kyoto prefecture is known as ancient capital and is popular among foreign tourists. The abundance of tourists supports real estate market for constructing hotels and retail shops.  Commercial land prices in Koto has a surge of 7.5% in 2018 after the dramatic 5.7% increase in 2017. With the limited supply in commercial lands, residential lands in Kyoto prefecture also gain benefits from the increased inbound tourists, limited supply of lodging and land.   

 

 

Government policy 

 

Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of Bank of Japan, announced 2019 financial strategy in parliament in December 2018. Without achieving the 2% inflation rate in Japan, central bank had to maintain the massive stimulus program to boost economic growth. Therefore, implementation of low borrowing rates scheme will be continued. Business and consumers from varieties of sectors can also be benefited under the low rate policy. Comparing to other countries, the borrowing rate in Japan is relatively low which is more attractive to foreign investors to start and develop business. 

 

The Japan Times (2018) has reported that Prime Minister Abe will raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October 2019. Cash incentives and tax exemption for home buyers will also be applied when the consumption tax is increased.  This may favor enhancing Japanese real estate market.  

 

According to Planning and Research Department Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. (2018), the major population in Japan will be aged 70-90 in 2050. The Japan government also aware of the aging issue. It is estimated that the number of Japanese will fall from 127 million to 87 million by 2060, of whom nearly 40% of population will be 65 or above. Imbalance population will cause different social issues, for example, cost in medical and nursing care, shrinking labor force, insufficient tax income and others. Aiming at Japan’s sustainable development, Japan government has launched new immigration rules to attract international expertise and professionals to work and stay in Japan for higher productivity. 

 

Currency stability 

 

Proven by A History of Yen Exchange Rates (2014), value of yen would keep constant or even increase when world equities market encounter downturn. It is also noticed by Lothian (2014), yen is more suitable to hold in long-term. Additionally, different reports and forecasts, including Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve (2019), predict the financial growth in 2019 will slow down. Since yen is the main currency used in Japanese real estate market, purchasing Japanese property at reasonable exchange rate may lead to favorable long-term investment return. 

 

 

 

 

Reference 

 

Amamiya, M. (2019). Japan’s economy and monetary policy. Bank of Japan. Retrieving from https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2019/ko190131a.htm/ 

 

Fleming, S. (2019). Fed eyes slowing global growth in rate setting. The Financial Times Ltd. Retrieving from http://big5.ftchinese.com/story/001081312/en?ccode=LanguageSwitch&archive 

 

Japan National Tourism Organization. (2018). Trends in the visitor arrivals to Japan by year. Retrieving from https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/#graph–inbound–travelers–transition 

 

Kuroda, H. (2018). Japan’s economic and price development and future prospects. Bank of Japan. Retrieving from https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2018/ko181226a.htm/ 

 

Kyodo. (2018). Abe says he’s going ahead with Japan’s consumption tax hike in October 2019. The Japan Times. Retrirving from https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/15/business/economy-business/abe-says-hes-going-ahead-japans-consumption-tax-hike-october-2019/#.XGPI3TMzaUk 

 

Lothian, J.R. (2014). A history of yen exchange rates. Research Gate. Retrieved from  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228137562_A_History_of_Yen_Exchange_Rates 

 

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. (2018). Standard Land Price survey.  Retrieving from http://www.mlit.go.jp/en/report/press/totikensangyo04_hh_000021.html 

 

Planning and Research Department Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. (2018). Japanese real estate statistics 2019. Retrieving from https://www.mitsuifudosan.co.jp/realestate_statics/ 

 

 

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